Post by stuartcapel on Aug 25, 2011 21:36:22 GMT 10
Heading into the final regular season round of the 2011 DBA season, every division bar two have failed to set their top four, and in all but the A4 and B2 divisions, the teams entering Saturday in fifth position still harbour dreams of finals action in September.
So for some, the elimination finals begin this weekend. The cards are all on the table for some teams, while some who are secure in their finals position can take it a little easier in preparation for the following week.
But what of the regular occurrence where at this point of the season, someone inevitably asks ‘What has to happen in order for us to finish higher than the other mob?’
The good news is that someone’s gone through it, and all the scenario’s for the coming weekend are below. Good luck to all players, coaches and officials this weekend.
A1
28 – Dingley
27 – Cheltenham
23 – Berwick
20 – Frankston
19 – Dandenong
Scenarios:
Dingley – Must beat or draw with Cheltenham to win Minor Premiership. Lose and they finish second
Cheltenham – Must beat Dingley to win Minor Premiership. Lose and they finish second.
Berwick – Can’t move up or down. They will host the First Semi Final
Frankston – Must win or draw (with a score line less than 16-16) with Berwick to make the finals.
Dandenong – Need Berwick to beat or draw (with a score line higher than 16-16) with Frankston to make the finals.
The undisputed match of the round occurs at Farm Road, where Cheltenham hosts Dingley in what is a one-game play-off for the Minor Premiership and the right to host the Second Semi Final this week.
With Sam Street on the hill, Dingley proved themselves to be the best team in the DBA over the course of the 2011 season, however the Dingoes haven’t been as impressive without the teenager on the mound. Grant Irving was rocked by Berwick’s line-up last week – will Cheltenham do the same to him this week?
There’s a bit of rivalty now between the two teams given a few jibes from across the forum, and both sides would love nothing better than knocking off the other headed into the playoffs. With Cunningham, Blackmore, Reinke and perhaps Blackley of the Adam variety available to throw, I think Cheltenham might have enough in reserve to outmuscle the Dingoes.
Down the freeway, Frankston hosts their final regular season game at ‘The Patch’, before their move to new surrounds next season. They take on Berwick, who are safely in third position regardless of the result on Saturday.
For the Tomatoes, they must win or draw to see off the threat of the Couch Burners, who will pick up the two free points on offer with the bye, so this is very much an all or nothing game for the Tomatoes as they farewell ‘The Patch’. Hopefully, one thing that moves with Frankston are those Chicken Schnitzel sandwiches from the Tomato Café. I will be making the trip down to ‘The Patch’ one more time to reminisce…and to devour one of those awesome sangas!
As for a tip…I’ve a hunch the Tomatoes will edge the Dodgers out here.
The ‘Who Cares Cup’ takes place at Bicentennial Park on Saturday as the Blue Jays host the Pirates, with Mornington hoping that they will have saved their best performance until the last game of the season.
With little on the line, the game may well be a ‘fastball off’, and in a forum exclusive, I can bring to you the rules that the umpires are likely to go over with coaches Richards and Warren at the managers meeting before the game:
Pitchers can only throw fastballs.
Umpires are to enforce a baulk on any breaking or offspeed (ground rules for the day) illegally deceiving the hitter and runners.
No Bunting
No Stealing
No Hit and Runs
No signals at all.
The only rule, don't be the last out.
A2
30 – Dandenong
28 – Dingley
21 – Berwick
20 – Cheltenham
20 – Frankston
Scenarios:
Dandenong – have the bye and get the free two points. They are Minor Premiers.
Dingley – Can’t move up or down.
Berwick – Must beat or draw with Frankston to make the finals. Must win to host First Semi Final
Cheltenham – Must beat or draw with Dingley to guarantee a finals berth. If they lose to Dingley, they must rely on Berwick defeating Frankston.
Frankston – Win and they are in. Draw and they must rely on Dingley defeating Cheltenham in order to sneak into fourth position.
A3
24 – Bonbeach
24 – Berwick
22 – Cheltenham
17 – Dandenong
16 – Dingley Gold
Crap! This will take some explaining.
Scenarios:
Bonbeach – Just need to beat Mornington to take the Minor Premiership.
If they draw, they will require Berwick not to win against Frankston to take Minor Premiership.
If they lose, they will require Berwick to lose to Frankston to take Minor Premiership
Berwick – Must rely on Bonbeach failing to beat Mornington in order to have any chance at winning Minor Premiership
If Bonbeach draws with Mornington, Berwick can take Minor Premiership with victory over Frankston
If Bonbeach loses to Mornington, Berwick can take Minor Premiership with win or draw against Frankston
BUT
If Berwick loses to Frankston and Cheltenham defeats Dingley Gold, then Berwick will finish third and host First Semi Final
Cheltenham – Must defeat Dingley Gold and rely on Berwick losing to Frankston to take second position. Otherwise, they will finish third.
Dandenong – Must defeat Dingley Blue to secure fourth position
If Dandenong draws with Dingley Blue, they must rely on Dingley Gold not defeating Cheltenham to secure fourth position.
If Dandenong loses to Dingley Blue, they must rely on Dingley Gold losing to Cheltenham to secure fourth position.
Dingley Gold – If Dingley Gold defeats Cheltenham, then they require Dandenong to either draw or lose against Dingley Blue to take fourth position
If Dingley Gold draw with Cheltenham, then they require Dandenong to lose to Dingley Blue to take fourth position.
If Dingley Gold loses to Cheltenham, then they are Goooooooooooooone!!
Got all that?
Good.
A4
32 – Dandenong
24 – Frankston
24 – Berwick
23 – Cheltenham
Dandenong – Only the revelation that Brian Waldron does the contracts at Dandenong can now prevent them being Minor Premiers.
Frankston – Must beat or draw with Berwick to ensure second position
If Frankston loses to Berwick, then they will finish third, however if Cheltenham defeats Dingley Gold by over 20 runs, then Frankston will finish fourth.
Berwick – If Berwick defeats Frankston, then they will finish second
If Berwick draws with Frankston and Cheltenham does not defeat Dingley, then Berwick will finish third.
If Berwick draws with Frankston and Cheltenham beats Dingley, then Cheltenham will finish third and Berwick will finish fourth.
Cheltenham – There’s around twenty different scenario’s for Cheltenham, and to be quite truthful I simply can’t be stuffed going through all of them. The good thing for the Rustlers is that win, lose or draw against Dingley, they are in the finals. If they lose to Dingley, then they will finish fourth. If they beat Dingley, then in all likelihood they will finish third and host the first Semi Final.
B1
30 – Moorabbin
27 – Pakenham
25 – Boneo
19 – Carrum Downs
18 – Chelsea
Moorabbin – Minor Premiership winners and odds on for the Premiership.
Pakenham – Must beat or draw with Moorabbin to secure second position.
Should Pakenham lose to Moorabbin and Boneo defeat Oakleigh (and the total defeat of Pakenham and victory of Boneo be over about 30 runs), then Pakenham will finish third.
Boneo – Must defeat Oakleigh and have Moorabbin defeat Pakenham (and the total defeat of Pakenham and victory of Boneo be over about 30 runs) to finish second. Otherwise they will finish third and host the First Semi Final.
Carrum Downs – Must beat Cheltenham to guarantee fourth position.
If Carrum Downs draws with Cheltenham, then Carrum Downs will finish fourth provided Chelsea do not defeat Dingley by 13 runs.
If Carrum Downs loses to Cheltenham, then they must rely on Dingley defeating Chelsea, however if Chelsea and Dingley draw, then Carrum Downs must keep their margin of defeat to Cheltenham to a total under 13 runs.
Chelsea – If Chelsea defeats Dingley, they will take fourth position if Carrum Downs loses to Cheltenham. If Carrum Downs draws with Cheltenham, then Chelsea must win by 13 runs against Dingley to take fourth position.
If Chelsea draws with Dingley, then they will finish fourth only if Carrum Downs loses to Cheltenham by over 13 runs.
The top three teams appear set in their ladder positions, with a minor miracle required for Boneo to finish second at Pakenham’s expense.
In all likelihood, Moorabbin will defeat Pakenham and Boneo will beat Oakleigh, however the thirty run turnover required for Boneo to leapfrog the Pumas does appear to be rather farfetched.
The real interest surrounds fourth position, with Carrum Downs doing an Andrew Lloyd circa 1990 (Google it people!), passing Chelsea with one game remaining in the season.
The equation is a very simple one for the Cardinals, whose destiny is firmly in their own hands. If they defeat Cheltenham then they are into the finals, which would be a phenomenal effort given they have been playing catch-up for a majority of the season.
For the Dolphins, they must defeat Dingley and then hope Cheltenham does them a favour by knocking off the Cardinals.
Both games would see the combatants for fourth position enter as favourites, however I’d expect one of them to falter at the last hurdle. We could even see Cheltenham and Dingley win, leaving Carrum Downs making the finals via a ‘Bradbury’.
B2
29 – Chelsea
26 – Pakenham
24 – Dandenong
18 – Carrum Downs
17 – Dingley Gold
17 – Bonbeach
Chelsea – Will finish Minor Premiers
Pakenham – Their % superiority ensures they will finish second and play Chelsea in the Grand Final qualifier next week.
Dandenong – Will finish third and host the First Semi Final.
Carrum Downs – Have the bye this week and get the two free points. They will finish fourth and visit Dandenong in a cut-throat First Semi Final next week.
Dingley Gold & Bonbeach – S.O.L
B3
32 – Bonbeach
28 – Chelsea
17 – Carrum Downs (.395)
16 – Dandenong (.478)
15 – Dingley (.480)
Bonbeach – Will finish Minor Premiers
Chelsea – Will finish second and play Bonbeach in next week’s Second Semi Final
Carrum Downs – If they beat or draw against Dingley then they will make the finals. If they lose then they will miss out on the finals at Dingley’s expense.
Dandenong – If they beat or draw against Pakenham then they will make the finals. If they lose to Pakenham, then they will only make the finals if Carrum Downs defeats Dingley.
Dingley – Will make the finals if they beat Carrum Downs, or draw against Carrum Downs and Pakenham beats Dandenong. If they lose, then they are goneski!
WOMENS
While the gents are finishing off their regular season, the women have already reached finals time, and both the First and Second Semi Finals will be played at Footscray this Sunday. From there, the finals will move to Sandringham for both the Preliminary and Grand Finals.
In the First Semi Final, Footscray, who enjoyed a fine regular season, defeating both the top two teams along the way, hosts Monash University, whose only two victories this season came against a winless Sandringham team. I’m fully expecting Footscray, who will be in Division One this summer, to continue their excellent winter season with a victory over the Farmers.
The Second Semi Final sees Berwick take on Melbourne University in a battle of two teams who are so evenly matched, it took percentage to separate them for the Minor Premiership as both ended the regular season on 25 competition points.
I’m tempted to bring back interactive tipping for this game, but I’m extremely reluctant to tip against a Berwick team that features the likes of Simone Wearne, Shae Lillywhite, the ever reliable Rebecca Dodd and ‘Super Southpaw’ Deb Bryant. Berwick for mine in a close one.
Again, good luck to all players coaches and officials for this week. See you in the finals!!
So for some, the elimination finals begin this weekend. The cards are all on the table for some teams, while some who are secure in their finals position can take it a little easier in preparation for the following week.
But what of the regular occurrence where at this point of the season, someone inevitably asks ‘What has to happen in order for us to finish higher than the other mob?’
The good news is that someone’s gone through it, and all the scenario’s for the coming weekend are below. Good luck to all players, coaches and officials this weekend.
A1
28 – Dingley
27 – Cheltenham
23 – Berwick
20 – Frankston
19 – Dandenong
Scenarios:
Dingley – Must beat or draw with Cheltenham to win Minor Premiership. Lose and they finish second
Cheltenham – Must beat Dingley to win Minor Premiership. Lose and they finish second.
Berwick – Can’t move up or down. They will host the First Semi Final
Frankston – Must win or draw (with a score line less than 16-16) with Berwick to make the finals.
Dandenong – Need Berwick to beat or draw (with a score line higher than 16-16) with Frankston to make the finals.
The undisputed match of the round occurs at Farm Road, where Cheltenham hosts Dingley in what is a one-game play-off for the Minor Premiership and the right to host the Second Semi Final this week.
With Sam Street on the hill, Dingley proved themselves to be the best team in the DBA over the course of the 2011 season, however the Dingoes haven’t been as impressive without the teenager on the mound. Grant Irving was rocked by Berwick’s line-up last week – will Cheltenham do the same to him this week?
There’s a bit of rivalty now between the two teams given a few jibes from across the forum, and both sides would love nothing better than knocking off the other headed into the playoffs. With Cunningham, Blackmore, Reinke and perhaps Blackley of the Adam variety available to throw, I think Cheltenham might have enough in reserve to outmuscle the Dingoes.
Down the freeway, Frankston hosts their final regular season game at ‘The Patch’, before their move to new surrounds next season. They take on Berwick, who are safely in third position regardless of the result on Saturday.
For the Tomatoes, they must win or draw to see off the threat of the Couch Burners, who will pick up the two free points on offer with the bye, so this is very much an all or nothing game for the Tomatoes as they farewell ‘The Patch’. Hopefully, one thing that moves with Frankston are those Chicken Schnitzel sandwiches from the Tomato Café. I will be making the trip down to ‘The Patch’ one more time to reminisce…and to devour one of those awesome sangas!
As for a tip…I’ve a hunch the Tomatoes will edge the Dodgers out here.
The ‘Who Cares Cup’ takes place at Bicentennial Park on Saturday as the Blue Jays host the Pirates, with Mornington hoping that they will have saved their best performance until the last game of the season.
With little on the line, the game may well be a ‘fastball off’, and in a forum exclusive, I can bring to you the rules that the umpires are likely to go over with coaches Richards and Warren at the managers meeting before the game:
Pitchers can only throw fastballs.
Umpires are to enforce a baulk on any breaking or offspeed (ground rules for the day) illegally deceiving the hitter and runners.
No Bunting
No Stealing
No Hit and Runs
No signals at all.
The only rule, don't be the last out.
A2
30 – Dandenong
28 – Dingley
21 – Berwick
20 – Cheltenham
20 – Frankston
Scenarios:
Dandenong – have the bye and get the free two points. They are Minor Premiers.
Dingley – Can’t move up or down.
Berwick – Must beat or draw with Frankston to make the finals. Must win to host First Semi Final
Cheltenham – Must beat or draw with Dingley to guarantee a finals berth. If they lose to Dingley, they must rely on Berwick defeating Frankston.
Frankston – Win and they are in. Draw and they must rely on Dingley defeating Cheltenham in order to sneak into fourth position.
A3
24 – Bonbeach
24 – Berwick
22 – Cheltenham
17 – Dandenong
16 – Dingley Gold
Crap! This will take some explaining.
Scenarios:
Bonbeach – Just need to beat Mornington to take the Minor Premiership.
If they draw, they will require Berwick not to win against Frankston to take Minor Premiership.
If they lose, they will require Berwick to lose to Frankston to take Minor Premiership
Berwick – Must rely on Bonbeach failing to beat Mornington in order to have any chance at winning Minor Premiership
If Bonbeach draws with Mornington, Berwick can take Minor Premiership with victory over Frankston
If Bonbeach loses to Mornington, Berwick can take Minor Premiership with win or draw against Frankston
BUT
If Berwick loses to Frankston and Cheltenham defeats Dingley Gold, then Berwick will finish third and host First Semi Final
Cheltenham – Must defeat Dingley Gold and rely on Berwick losing to Frankston to take second position. Otherwise, they will finish third.
Dandenong – Must defeat Dingley Blue to secure fourth position
If Dandenong draws with Dingley Blue, they must rely on Dingley Gold not defeating Cheltenham to secure fourth position.
If Dandenong loses to Dingley Blue, they must rely on Dingley Gold losing to Cheltenham to secure fourth position.
Dingley Gold – If Dingley Gold defeats Cheltenham, then they require Dandenong to either draw or lose against Dingley Blue to take fourth position
If Dingley Gold draw with Cheltenham, then they require Dandenong to lose to Dingley Blue to take fourth position.
If Dingley Gold loses to Cheltenham, then they are Goooooooooooooone!!
Got all that?
Good.
A4
32 – Dandenong
24 – Frankston
24 – Berwick
23 – Cheltenham
Dandenong – Only the revelation that Brian Waldron does the contracts at Dandenong can now prevent them being Minor Premiers.
Frankston – Must beat or draw with Berwick to ensure second position
If Frankston loses to Berwick, then they will finish third, however if Cheltenham defeats Dingley Gold by over 20 runs, then Frankston will finish fourth.
Berwick – If Berwick defeats Frankston, then they will finish second
If Berwick draws with Frankston and Cheltenham does not defeat Dingley, then Berwick will finish third.
If Berwick draws with Frankston and Cheltenham beats Dingley, then Cheltenham will finish third and Berwick will finish fourth.
Cheltenham – There’s around twenty different scenario’s for Cheltenham, and to be quite truthful I simply can’t be stuffed going through all of them. The good thing for the Rustlers is that win, lose or draw against Dingley, they are in the finals. If they lose to Dingley, then they will finish fourth. If they beat Dingley, then in all likelihood they will finish third and host the first Semi Final.
B1
30 – Moorabbin
27 – Pakenham
25 – Boneo
19 – Carrum Downs
18 – Chelsea
Moorabbin – Minor Premiership winners and odds on for the Premiership.
Pakenham – Must beat or draw with Moorabbin to secure second position.
Should Pakenham lose to Moorabbin and Boneo defeat Oakleigh (and the total defeat of Pakenham and victory of Boneo be over about 30 runs), then Pakenham will finish third.
Boneo – Must defeat Oakleigh and have Moorabbin defeat Pakenham (and the total defeat of Pakenham and victory of Boneo be over about 30 runs) to finish second. Otherwise they will finish third and host the First Semi Final.
Carrum Downs – Must beat Cheltenham to guarantee fourth position.
If Carrum Downs draws with Cheltenham, then Carrum Downs will finish fourth provided Chelsea do not defeat Dingley by 13 runs.
If Carrum Downs loses to Cheltenham, then they must rely on Dingley defeating Chelsea, however if Chelsea and Dingley draw, then Carrum Downs must keep their margin of defeat to Cheltenham to a total under 13 runs.
Chelsea – If Chelsea defeats Dingley, they will take fourth position if Carrum Downs loses to Cheltenham. If Carrum Downs draws with Cheltenham, then Chelsea must win by 13 runs against Dingley to take fourth position.
If Chelsea draws with Dingley, then they will finish fourth only if Carrum Downs loses to Cheltenham by over 13 runs.
The top three teams appear set in their ladder positions, with a minor miracle required for Boneo to finish second at Pakenham’s expense.
In all likelihood, Moorabbin will defeat Pakenham and Boneo will beat Oakleigh, however the thirty run turnover required for Boneo to leapfrog the Pumas does appear to be rather farfetched.
The real interest surrounds fourth position, with Carrum Downs doing an Andrew Lloyd circa 1990 (Google it people!), passing Chelsea with one game remaining in the season.
The equation is a very simple one for the Cardinals, whose destiny is firmly in their own hands. If they defeat Cheltenham then they are into the finals, which would be a phenomenal effort given they have been playing catch-up for a majority of the season.
For the Dolphins, they must defeat Dingley and then hope Cheltenham does them a favour by knocking off the Cardinals.
Both games would see the combatants for fourth position enter as favourites, however I’d expect one of them to falter at the last hurdle. We could even see Cheltenham and Dingley win, leaving Carrum Downs making the finals via a ‘Bradbury’.
B2
29 – Chelsea
26 – Pakenham
24 – Dandenong
18 – Carrum Downs
17 – Dingley Gold
17 – Bonbeach
Chelsea – Will finish Minor Premiers
Pakenham – Their % superiority ensures they will finish second and play Chelsea in the Grand Final qualifier next week.
Dandenong – Will finish third and host the First Semi Final.
Carrum Downs – Have the bye this week and get the two free points. They will finish fourth and visit Dandenong in a cut-throat First Semi Final next week.
Dingley Gold & Bonbeach – S.O.L
B3
32 – Bonbeach
28 – Chelsea
17 – Carrum Downs (.395)
16 – Dandenong (.478)
15 – Dingley (.480)
Bonbeach – Will finish Minor Premiers
Chelsea – Will finish second and play Bonbeach in next week’s Second Semi Final
Carrum Downs – If they beat or draw against Dingley then they will make the finals. If they lose then they will miss out on the finals at Dingley’s expense.
Dandenong – If they beat or draw against Pakenham then they will make the finals. If they lose to Pakenham, then they will only make the finals if Carrum Downs defeats Dingley.
Dingley – Will make the finals if they beat Carrum Downs, or draw against Carrum Downs and Pakenham beats Dandenong. If they lose, then they are goneski!
WOMENS
While the gents are finishing off their regular season, the women have already reached finals time, and both the First and Second Semi Finals will be played at Footscray this Sunday. From there, the finals will move to Sandringham for both the Preliminary and Grand Finals.
In the First Semi Final, Footscray, who enjoyed a fine regular season, defeating both the top two teams along the way, hosts Monash University, whose only two victories this season came against a winless Sandringham team. I’m fully expecting Footscray, who will be in Division One this summer, to continue their excellent winter season with a victory over the Farmers.
The Second Semi Final sees Berwick take on Melbourne University in a battle of two teams who are so evenly matched, it took percentage to separate them for the Minor Premiership as both ended the regular season on 25 competition points.
I’m tempted to bring back interactive tipping for this game, but I’m extremely reluctant to tip against a Berwick team that features the likes of Simone Wearne, Shae Lillywhite, the ever reliable Rebecca Dodd and ‘Super Southpaw’ Deb Bryant. Berwick for mine in a close one.
Again, good luck to all players coaches and officials for this week. See you in the finals!!
