Post by The Jack on Aug 6, 2012 14:12:57 GMT 10
Assuming that the ladders don't change for any reason, here is what could potentially happen for the remainder of the season.
A Grade
Looking at them as they stand and assuming that the higher placed team will win games against those lower on the ladder, the next few weeks should go like this.
1st Research WWW points 31
2nd Heathmont WWW points 28
3rd Ringwood WWL points 24
4th GMBC LWW points 20
5th Knox LWW points 19
6th Greens WLW points 17
7th Watsonia LLL points 13
8th North Balwyn WLL points 11
9th Croydon LLL points 10
10th Melb Uni LLL points 7
Of course, assumptions can be dangerous, so here are some key games over the next three rounds.
Round 16
GMBC V Ringwood - finals at stake for both, win for Monty gives them the momentum they need, while a win for Ringwood would see them play finals for the first time in a few years.
Heathmont V Knox - Knox can't afford to lose, if Monty win and Knox lose, the ladder could be settled as Research, Heathmont and Ring could not be displaced from the top four.
NB V Melb Uni - NB win, they stay up, Melb Uni win, NB could still stay up due to superior percentage.
Round 17
If Ring win in round 16, they cannot drop out, so the games that count if this is the case are;
NB V GMBC - Monty would need to win to stay half up on Knox (if Knox lost to Heathmont, lets assume that for now). If NB win this, Melb Uni would likely remain in last place and face relegation.
Melb Uni V Knox - both teams would need the win, Knox need to win and hope that Monty lose, while Melb Uni need to win two out of their last three to stay up.
Round 18
If results go the way of the higher team, none of the last round will cause any adjustment to the ladder in the context of who is in the top four, although if Monty lose a couple of games, then Knox is still in with a shot in the last round. Would have to wait until the previous games are played to comment here.
Likely top four
Research - looking good out in front and should prob be the favorite.
Heathmont - Hard hitting side who have also come into some good form. Probable finalists against Research.
Ringwood - (losing a pitcher?) should have done enough to stay in the top four, would need to knock out two tough sides to make the GF to face another tough side.
GMBC - Have also hit form at the right time of year, although have had trouble with the top two sides at least in the later part of the season.
Relegation - I would think Melb Uni will fall just short, it may come down to percentage, theirs is .265 while NB is .321, that is a big gap with 3 games to go.
B Grade
This season the top four will not be decided until the last round is complete. Scenario is very simple, if Waverley and Ringwood win every game, FH cannot make the finals. If FH lose one game they are unlikely to make the finals as Ringwood play two
lower placed teams. The likely hood is that Waverley will win at least 1 game meaning they cannot be knocked out, Ringwood and FH will win the next two games each, although FH may have a tougher game this week against La Trobe, but assuming a win, the last week is what it will come down to.
FH play St Kilda (who are not scoring many at all) while Ringwood play Rebels who currently sit in 2nd place. A Ringwood win may see a game again the next week against Rebels, while a loss would probably see FH in by percentage. (did you get all that?).
Looking at how teams have fared recently, La Trob could win this week although FH should and Ringwood may have hit a little form at the right time and could potentially win the last round against Rebels (they had a draw last time). So predicted top four is
Westgarth - best team all year, if they do lose the GF, I would still think they have a good case to being promoted (currently lost 1 game)
Rebels - If they beat Waverley in round 17 will finish 2nd, good effort, good recruiting, but can they beat the mighty 'Garth'?
Waverley - still doing well considering the average age of their side, could do a Westgarth next season in B Grade.
Ringwood - To make the finals with a win or draw in last round. Some interesting players still in this group, qualification could be interesting too.
FH to just miss.
Questions about the bottom sides again, does the league look at having a set 'A' and 'B' grade or do they allow anyone to enter this grade. They could look at having Monty, Knox and Panton Hill in 'B Grade' instead of the lower placed St Kilda, Bundoora and Essendon? That would make a strong 'grade' even with three teams having their first in A Grade. Has Essendon got more players for next season? Should there be a promotion and relegation to B and C grades? There are a number of scenarios, but that would be another discussion point I guess.
A Grade
Looking at them as they stand and assuming that the higher placed team will win games against those lower on the ladder, the next few weeks should go like this.
1st Research WWW points 31
2nd Heathmont WWW points 28
3rd Ringwood WWL points 24
4th GMBC LWW points 20
5th Knox LWW points 19
6th Greens WLW points 17
7th Watsonia LLL points 13
8th North Balwyn WLL points 11
9th Croydon LLL points 10
10th Melb Uni LLL points 7
Of course, assumptions can be dangerous, so here are some key games over the next three rounds.
Round 16
GMBC V Ringwood - finals at stake for both, win for Monty gives them the momentum they need, while a win for Ringwood would see them play finals for the first time in a few years.
Heathmont V Knox - Knox can't afford to lose, if Monty win and Knox lose, the ladder could be settled as Research, Heathmont and Ring could not be displaced from the top four.
NB V Melb Uni - NB win, they stay up, Melb Uni win, NB could still stay up due to superior percentage.
Round 17
If Ring win in round 16, they cannot drop out, so the games that count if this is the case are;
NB V GMBC - Monty would need to win to stay half up on Knox (if Knox lost to Heathmont, lets assume that for now). If NB win this, Melb Uni would likely remain in last place and face relegation.
Melb Uni V Knox - both teams would need the win, Knox need to win and hope that Monty lose, while Melb Uni need to win two out of their last three to stay up.
Round 18
If results go the way of the higher team, none of the last round will cause any adjustment to the ladder in the context of who is in the top four, although if Monty lose a couple of games, then Knox is still in with a shot in the last round. Would have to wait until the previous games are played to comment here.
Likely top four
Research - looking good out in front and should prob be the favorite.
Heathmont - Hard hitting side who have also come into some good form. Probable finalists against Research.
Ringwood - (losing a pitcher?) should have done enough to stay in the top four, would need to knock out two tough sides to make the GF to face another tough side.
GMBC - Have also hit form at the right time of year, although have had trouble with the top two sides at least in the later part of the season.
Relegation - I would think Melb Uni will fall just short, it may come down to percentage, theirs is .265 while NB is .321, that is a big gap with 3 games to go.
B Grade
This season the top four will not be decided until the last round is complete. Scenario is very simple, if Waverley and Ringwood win every game, FH cannot make the finals. If FH lose one game they are unlikely to make the finals as Ringwood play two
lower placed teams. The likely hood is that Waverley will win at least 1 game meaning they cannot be knocked out, Ringwood and FH will win the next two games each, although FH may have a tougher game this week against La Trobe, but assuming a win, the last week is what it will come down to.
FH play St Kilda (who are not scoring many at all) while Ringwood play Rebels who currently sit in 2nd place. A Ringwood win may see a game again the next week against Rebels, while a loss would probably see FH in by percentage. (did you get all that?).
Looking at how teams have fared recently, La Trob could win this week although FH should and Ringwood may have hit a little form at the right time and could potentially win the last round against Rebels (they had a draw last time). So predicted top four is
Westgarth - best team all year, if they do lose the GF, I would still think they have a good case to being promoted (currently lost 1 game)
Rebels - If they beat Waverley in round 17 will finish 2nd, good effort, good recruiting, but can they beat the mighty 'Garth'?
Waverley - still doing well considering the average age of their side, could do a Westgarth next season in B Grade.
Ringwood - To make the finals with a win or draw in last round. Some interesting players still in this group, qualification could be interesting too.
FH to just miss.
Questions about the bottom sides again, does the league look at having a set 'A' and 'B' grade or do they allow anyone to enter this grade. They could look at having Monty, Knox and Panton Hill in 'B Grade' instead of the lower placed St Kilda, Bundoora and Essendon? That would make a strong 'grade' even with three teams having their first in A Grade. Has Essendon got more players for next season? Should there be a promotion and relegation to B and C grades? There are a number of scenarios, but that would be another discussion point I guess.
